Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.663000 0.771456 0.891628 1.034603 1.200034 1.385404 1.608871
2025-02-09 0.494545 0.641959 0.823318 1.062606 1.369865 1.751050 2.259927
2025-02-16 0.399104 0.559972 0.773133 1.075747 1.493932 2.051204 2.850321
2025-02-23 0.331602 0.495777 0.726891 1.075140 1.585947 2.307233 3.403103
2025-03-02 0.279784 0.442064 0.682836 1.064877 1.654908 2.530770 3.929497
2025-03-09 0.242385 0.402415 0.651279 1.064829 1.733596 2.771519 4.504179
2025-03-16 0.204806 0.355931 0.601362 1.026935 1.744877 2.905579 4.923566
2025-03-23 0.193701 0.350882 0.616376 1.094805 1.933359 3.339939 5.876623
2025-03-30 0.167943 0.316586 0.577299 1.064778 1.951026 3.490889 6.366774
2025-04-06 0.145510 0.284867 0.538184 1.028688 1.951826 3.610035 6.810854
2025-04-13 0.127038 0.257822 0.503777 0.996118 1.953653 3.728748 7.264003
2025-04-20 0.116582 0.244758 0.493639 1.007641 2.038592 4.007112 8.044067
2025-04-27 0.112483 0.244224 0.508255 1.070661 2.233589 4.519848 9.345800
2025-05-04 0.105274 0.236323 0.507342 1.102581 2.371065 4.937786 10.512511
2025-05-11 0.097155 0.225267 0.498398 1.116327 2.472119 5.292996 11.590778
2025-05-18 0.088769 0.212379 0.483791 1.115702 2.541795 5.589815 12.577914
2025-05-25 0.080574 0.198751 0.465776 1.105059 2.587811 5.840686 13.493005
2025-06-01 0.074062 0.188157 0.453191 1.105010 2.657226 6.149075 14.569611
2025-06-08 0.065693 0.171865 0.425369 1.065710 2.631002 6.240974 15.162564
2025-06-15 0.064880 0.174351 0.442373 1.136096 2.872788 6.969833 17.323772
2025-06-22 0.058300 0.161085 0.419365 1.104957 2.864126 7.112484 18.099190
2025-06-29 0.052113 0.147977 0.395100 1.067529 2.835146 7.202937 18.756399
2025-07-06 0.046771 0.136408 0.373319 1.033751 2.811286 7.302915 19.448223